Book Review: The Signal and the Noise

Nate Silver's book, The Signal and the Noise, is among my fave non-fiction reads of the year. Highly recommended, especially for anyone that does any kind of modelling/forecasting as part of their work (as is the case for me).

Silver made a name for himself doing baseball forecasting, then moved on do playing professional poker during the 'poker bubble', then came onto the mainstream radar by pretty accurately predicting the 2008 election.

In his book, he looks at the poor track record many branches of science & business have in making predictions. He also points to some areas of success. In running through his examples (baseball, weather, politics, finance and earthquake prediction, to name a few), he looks at a variance of available historical data, signal to noise ratios, etc. He gives a nice overview of Bayesian principles of taking bias into account.

I don't want to give it five stars only because much of his work has been covered by others (e.g. Taleb's Black Swans for example), but it's a great book nonetheless. It made me realize some of the flaws in much of the modelling that we do in my work, and gave me some tools to (hopefully) improve.

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't

Grading my 2011 predictions

It's always a good idea to go back and look at calls I made and see whether I was out to lunch or not. I'll keep these in brief and elaborate where necessary, so it may help to first read the original post if you are interested.

Grading: 0 if wrong, 1 if right, 0.5 if partly right, with explanation

1. 0.5 "Bespoke design and devices of emotional attachement" - I predicted we'd see more Apple-like design and this would extend down to personalized design even to the individual level. I'm taking a half point on it because we did see some from the top down with all the laptop and camera manufacturers embracing design as a higher priority, and at the same time the bottom-up end of things like Kickstarter projects (e.g. pay a little more to get a custom color or your name engraved on it)
2. 1.0 "Appstore fatigue" - I think I was correct on this one. I participate in a few 'behind the scenes' mail lists with developers, and many of them are comparing notes on whether an appstore for a given platform or device has proven itself before they leap in. I also get the sense that consumers are ho-hum about hearing that yet another device is including an app store with the same apps they've already bought elsewhere.
3. 0.5 "Stereo3D will reach a point of undeniable lack of success" - Taking a half point here because there have been numerous pieces calling attention to the lack of success, but there's still an air of 'wait and see', plus some claims that they are doing well in some regions outside the US. US press seems to be acknowledging that the tech isn't moving people as expected (1, 2)
4. 1.0 "3D Printing will take off" Though admittedly I was vague here by the "as measured by..." piece. Still shapeways, Tinkercad, MyRobotNation, 3D printable remote control cars, and numerous entries in the low-cost printer market... it's clearly a growing area of interest. Supposedly Makerbot has some big announcement coming next week at CES.
5. 1.0 "Gamings Physical & Virtual Worlds meet" - This was already underway but has been making further progress. The examples I listed last year are still there, and new ones have been introduced, as well as existing toys getting a virtual element to them (e.g. American Girl has added an online component). Probably the best example I've seen to date is Skylanders, which my kids are currently obsessed with.
6. 0.5 "Apple has a game platform" Apple more openly acknowledges games as a leading category in their app store, and is catering to developers with feature requests and the like. They still haven't directly taken on the consoles or handhelds with their core customers yet. 
7. 1.0 "The Post-PC era will officially arrive". I think this is true - not in the sense that PCs are dead (they are doing great) - but in the sense that there are computing and media-consumption devices that are designed to function without PC tethering. tablets, phones, etc, seem to have made this transition.
8. 0.5 "Brands-as-memes": There are cases of this happening, but Angry Birds is still so exceptional I can't point to it as a trend when the others are so much smaller.
9. 0.0 "e-reader apps and services will see an explosion of innovation": I still think this could happen, but so far the leaders in e-reading have been pulling ahead based on vertical integration and digital distribution leadership (Amazon, Apple), not by building a more innovative reader. Shame.
10. 1.0 "Cracks in gaming's walled garden": It's still early, but HTML5 games on iOS are a leading example here.
11. 1.0. "HTML5 begets real apps": LucidChart, Tinkercad, many other examples.
12. 0.0. "Android Consolidation": There hasn't been consolidation, and like I pointed out the app landscape while perhaps not bleak is at least very messy. Rather than consolidation though, we're seeing a few guys break out as leaders from the rest of the me-toos. e.g. Kindle Fire.
13. 0.5. "Games market analysts will struggle to segment an amorphous landscape": I think I was right here, but in retrospect it's hard to see how to grade it.
14. 1.0. "No official Kinect for PC": Development kits yes, but no consumer product.
15. 1.0. "Tablets as a Producer Platform": We are seeing tablet-targeted text editors, photo apps, visualization apps, etc.

So, 10.5 out of 15. Not bad but could do better.

Why futurizing sucks, part I

via Kotaku:

In 1982 the president of Arista records, Clive Davis, wrote an editorial in Billboard magazine entitled "You can't hum a video game." His point was that, although the then newly-popular pastime of gaming was giving record companies the heebie-jeebies by threatening to eat into the spending power of the youth market, music would always have the upper hand compared to this newfangled bleepy nonsense.

Irony, she is a cruel mistress. Thirty Twenty Six years later, Gamasutra reported that Aerosmith have earned more from their Guitar Hero spin-off Guitar Hero:Aerosmith than from any single one of the fourteen albums they have released to date. The A&R man responsible for discovering Aerosmith? Step forward Clive Davis.

Click thru to read the rest of the post. It's interesting

E3 predictions

It's been a while since I've talked about the E3 Supernova and the resultant "Dwarf Star E3".

Since E3's kicking off this week while I rock the great white north, I guess now's the time to get predictions in. I think it's going to flop. Someone will claim victory by some standard of measure, but I think it's going to flop, and next years will either not exist, or be even smaller.

Perhaps rather than 'dwarf star', 'old yeller E3' would be a better name?